Oscar beat: Race is on for Best Actress

Every year it seems like Oscars’ Best Actor
category is crowded, while the number of
contenders for the Best Actress trophy feels
relatively thin. It’s a result of the sad fact that
there just aren’t as many interesting lead roles
for women in Hollywood as there are for men;
many times the “female lead” is relegated to
existing only in relation to the film’s male lead.
It’s disappointing to be sure, but it doesn’t mean
there aren’t any noteworthy female roles out
there, and this year’s Best Actress race is an
excellent showcase of both talent and range,
from brilliant sociopaths to Alzheimer’s patients.I take a look at the current state
of the Best Actress Oscar category in this new
edition of Oscar Beat.
One of the biggest heavyweights in this year’s
race was actually a surprise latecomer. The
drama Still Alice premiered at the Toronto
International Film Festival in September as a
rather under-the-radar picture, but buzz quickly
grew for Julianne Moore’s lead performance as a
linguistics professor coming to terms with early
on-set Alzheimer’s Disease. The buzz was so
strong, in fact, that many were saying if a studio
picked the film up for distribution and got it out
in theaters before the end of the year, they would
almost certainly secure an Oscar nomination for
Moore—if not the win. That’s exactly what Sony
Pictures Classics has done, and word continues
to be strong for Moore’s lead performance,
making her a very likely candidate for a Best
Actress nomination.
In the case of Reese Witherspoon and Wild, on
paper the role seems like an obvious choice for
Oscar attention. Based on the memoir by Cheryl
Strayed, Witherspoon plays a woman who
attempts the 1,100-mile hike from the Mojave
Desert to the border of Washington State in order
to work out some inner emotional turmoil. It all
sounds very familiar and generic, but the film
itself is anything but thanks to Witherspoon’s
fearless lead performance and Jean-Marc
Vallee’s dynamic direction. I’m actually a little
surprised the film hasn’t made more of a splash
already, but I imagine it will pick up more
supporters as its December 5th release date
looms closer. Regardless, Witherspoon has a
strong and deserving shot at a Best Actress nod
this year.
While many have been raving about Eddie
Redmayne ’s performance in the Stephen Hawking
biopic The Theory of Everything, an equal amount
of praise is being heaped on his co-star Felicity
Jones , who plays Hawking’s first wife Jane. The
film is actually as much Jane’s story as it is
Stephen’s, and Jones more than rises to the
occasion with a strong, heartbreaking
performance that is sure to garner her Academy
consideration. It’s a subtle piece of work that is
essential to the overall success of the film as
Jane’s story is really the emotional center, and
given that Theory of Everything tugs at the
heartstrings quite successfully, I imagine Jones’
performance will be a hit with Academy voters.
Another performance that’s certainly had people
talking is Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl. The
actress had a big challenge ahead of her as she
essentially plays two roles in the film, but she
does so in a manner that is wholly believable—
Amazing Amy and Regular Amy are clearly cut
from the same cloth, and the film’s “turn” is
rendered at once surprising and inevitable thanks
to Pike’s commanding work. It’s one of those
go-for-broke performances that could have
crumbled under a lesser actress, but Pike pulls
off the high-wire act magnificently, crescendoing
with some truly transcendent work in the film’s
third act (that hair flip, man ). The picture was a
box office success and comes from a highly
esteemed director (the one and only David
Fincher ) so it has a leg up in the Oscar race, but
even without those two factors I don’t see how
Pike’s performance could be ignored. It’ll be
curious to see how the film’s momentum
changes—if at all—as the season wears on, but
regardless of how many nods it does or doesn’t
get overall, I think Pike has a very strong shot at
a Best Actress nomination.
And then this is where the category gets a less
unsure given the overall thinness of the
contenders this year. Jenny Slate is absolutely
deserving of attention for her bold work in
Obvious Child , in which she effortlessly balances
humor with very difficult subject matter. But the
trick is getting enough Academy voters to see the
film, which has been crudely deemed “the
abortion comedy.” And Hilary Swank is a real
possibility for her role in director Tommy Lee
Jones ’ Western The Homesman , a film that feels
like it could pick up some steam once voters
start digging through their screener piles over the
holidays.
Shailene Woodley also has a shot at a Best
Actress nod for her turn in the hit drama The
Fault in Our Stars , especially given the young
actress’ popularity at the moment. She’s
undoubtedly solid in the film, though I’m not so
certain this is her “Oscar-worthy” performance—it
feels like Woodley may give us something even
better down the road. Gugu Mbatha-Raw is a
potential contender for her lead turn in the period
drama Belle , and there’s always the outside
possibility that previous winner Marion Cotillard
could gain some attention for either James Gray ’s
The Immigrant or the Dardennes Brothers ’ Two
Days, One Night. Speaking of foreign films, I’d
argue Lisa Loven Kongsli makes a strong case
for Best Actress attention in the delightful
Swedish film Force Majeure, but that’s a bit of an
uphill battle as far as securing a nomination is
concerned.
Other less-certain contenders include Jessica
Chastain in The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby
and Keira Knightley in Begin Again , but those
two actresses have much better shots in the Best
Supporting Actress category for A Most Violent
Year and The Imitation Game, respectively.
There are also a few unseen performances that
are garnering early buzz, chiefly Amy Adams in
Tim Burton ’s drama Big Eyes . The trailer looks
like the film could be a return to form for the
whimsical director, anchored by a strong lead
performance from Adams as Margaret Keene, an
artist whose husband took credit for her popular
(and lucrative) oil paintings. Early word on
Adams’ turn is very positive, and the actress
could nab her sixth Oscar nomination in just eight
years.
And then there’s Emily Blunt’s lead turn in the
Disney musical Into the Woods (co-star Meryl
Streep is being submitted for Supporting Actress
consideration). It remains to be seen if the film
will be a massive success like director Rob
Marshall ’s excellent 2002 musical Chicago , more
of a commercial play on Disney’s part, or a big
miss like Marshall’s star-studded 2009 musical
Nine. If it’s the former, Blunt could stand to
secure her first Academy Award nod, though I’d
also argue that she’s deserving of attention for
the delightful sci-fi pic Edge of Tomorrow . Of
course that’s a fruitless rally cry as the Academy
rarely acknowledges anything too far outside its
drama/dramedy genre sweet spot.
As I said before, there are certainly some wildly
impressive lead actress performances from this
year that rival any of the lead actor turns, but it’s
in a disappointingly smaller number. The race
will indeed continue to shift in the coming weeks,
but as the last few unseen films start to screen
throughout November, the board will be unveiled
and the campaigns will kick into high gear.
For now, here’s how I see the current state of the
Best Actress race, ranked in order of likelihood to
be nominated , not likelihood to win.
1. Julianne Moore, Still Alice
2. Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
3. Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
4. Reese Witherspoon, Wild
5. Amy Adams, Big Eyes
6. Shailene Woodley, The Fault in Our Stars
7. Hilary Swank, The Homesman
8. Emily Blunt, Into the Woods
9. Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Belle
10. Jenny Slate, Obvious Child